With its PC user base collapsing by 90% in the first two weeks since release it would be easy to say that No Man’s Sky has already failed – but we’re going to examine the truth in greater detail.
The Underlying Player Base
The first thing to realize about a collapsing initial user base, is that this always happens with any game release. There is always a high percentage of users who are fleeting in their enthusiasm and, after experiencing the best content, decide to move on to greener pastures.
The more hyped a game is before release the higher the initial drop in users
However, hidden within these gaming ‘tourists’ there will be a much smaller group of highly committed players willing to invest their time and, more importantly, money into the long term development of the game.
This fragile group is where Hello Games are betting the future of No Man’s Sky on.
If the game can retain this small group of users and keep them sufficiently happy for long enough then there will be time to develop the game in all the areas that were under-delivered.
So How Did No Man’s Sky Underwhelm?
The ambitions of this game were almost without limit. Let’s see if we can summarize
Promise 1) An Infinite Universe
The problem with playing god is that you’ll quickly be brought back down to earth. Hello Games has a very small team of developers. Their capacity to build the 3D models and other gaming assets that users expect is extremely limited.
Their strategy has been to rely on procedural content generation to create a universe for them.
Procedural generation is quickly becoming a powerful tool for gaming development. It allows complex content to be created on the client side without large update downloads or loading speeds. Game designers are using it more to give an added sense of realism to their games.
No Man’s Sky delivered an infinitely empty universe
However, currently the technology is limited. The randomness of the technology is also its danger because it can create a massive empty canvas. For example, procedural generation is ideal for making rocks (or planets) look different every time – but what about creatures and structures?
Once gaming assets follow a set of structural rules, procedural generation starts to become less automated. Then you need a large team of 3D designers to set those rules. It may be that one day procedural generation learns how to write DNA procedurally. Until that happens this problem will continue.
Promise 2) Multiplayer
I saw through this promise the moment it was mentioned.
Recording changes to a world in a database is not multiplayer. It’s a bit like living in a house full of ghosts. The paranormal may occur, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to establish any kind of relationship with a presence that you cannot see or hear.
Persistence, does not equal multiplayer
Personally I find this promise the most egregious of all, since Hello Games knew very well that this was the case, as did every gaming industry professional.
It’s clear that multiplayer functionality is highly desirable in any gaming release since it massively increases the appeal of any game. However, it’s also incredibly complicated to create and requires expensive sever infrastructure to manage communications between players. Therefore it’s tempting for gaming studios to develop half-baked ‘multiplayer’ functionality just so they can add it to a game’s features list.
Promise 3) Races, Crafting, Etc, Etc
As soon as you promise standard gaming content in an infinite universe you’ve already failed. Either all the content was going to be procedurally generated, or it would be impossible for Hello Games’ tiny studio to deliver.
To some extent they seem to have realized this. Creatures have legs, tails, arms and heads all randomly stuck on to each other in a sometimes jumbled and sometimes beautiful way. And in some ways I find that exciting as it helps me imagine how very different species would be on an alien world.
However, again they started to stray away from procedural generation. Races are underdeveloped. The story line is thin, compared to the scale of the universe.
Conclusion
Hello Games have succeeded in demonstrating the potential of proceedurally generated universes for gaming content. There’s no doubt it’s the future of gaming.
They have also highlighted the remaining challenges in creating these universes.
However, with all the revenue generated, there is still potential to build new content and transform No Man’s Sky into the game it promised to be.
Perhaps my experience in the industry has turned me into a pessimist, but I’m not sure that content will ever materialize.
Playstation NewsWire 